Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart
Is Bitcoin cheap or expensive right now? The Rainbow Chart uses logarithmic regression to show you where today's price sits in Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory.
The Rainbow Chart overlays coloured bands on a logarithmic regression of Bitcoin’s price history, from deep blue accumulation to red bubble territory. This live version shows which band price sits in today and what each band has historically meant for forward returns.
Bitcoin is currently in the Accumulate zone
The live price sits between $70,661 and $104,516 on today's logarithmic band. Treat this as valuation context, not a trading signal.
Accumulate
📍 You Are Here
Accumulation zone. Bitcoin is below its long-term growth trend. Smart investors historically accumulated heavily in this band.
Band Floor
$70,661
Band Ceiling
$104,515
Current Price
$80,935
Accumulation Zone
Bitcoin is below or near its long-term growth average. A good time to hold your position or continue accumulating gradually.
Rainbow Band Legend
Percentages show how much of Bitcoin's history the price spent in each band
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Band Meanings
| Band | Meaning | Typical use | History |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Maximum Bubble Territory
|
Extreme euphoric pricing versus the long-term curve. | Reduce risk, avoid leverage, document assumptions. | 5.0% |
|
Sell. Seriously, SELL!
|
Historically overheated market conditions. | Rebalance or take profits if allocation is too large. | 4.8% |
|
FOMO Intensifies
|
Momentum and attention are accelerating. | Avoid emotional buys; compare with drawdown history. | 7.5% |
|
Is This a Bubble?
|
Above fair-value zone with rising bubble risk. | Use smaller buys or wait for volatility. | 11.5% |
|
HODL!
|
Middle of the model range. | Hold or DCA according to plan. | 15.6% |
|
Still Cheap
|
Below the model midpoint. | Long-term accumulators often add gradually here. | 22.6% |
|
Accumulate
|
Historically attractive accumulation range. | DCA, review cash reserves, avoid over-sizing. | 29.3% |
|
BUY!
|
Deep undervaluation by this model. | High-conviction buyers may increase planned buys. | 3.1% |
|
Basically a Fire Sale
|
Rare capitulation-style pricing. | Check market stress, custody risk, and liquidity first. | 0.2% |
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Rainbow Chart History & Accuracy
How the log-regression bands performed in past cycles
Support Accuracy (Fire Sale)
"Basically Fire Sale" (Blue/Purple)
Historically, these bands have been excellent entry signals. Bitcoin spent less than 5% of its history here, notably during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycle bottoms. Buying here has never resulted in a loss over a 4-year horizon.
Resistance Accuracy (Bubble)
"Maximum Bubble Territory" (Red)
The chart correctly identified the 2013 and 2017 peaks. However, in 2021, Bitcoin failed to reach the red band, peaking instead in the "Is this a Bubble?" (Orange) zone, showing that diminishing returns may flatten the curve.
Cycle Max Prediction
The Rainbow Chart is a fun tool, not financial advice. It uses past performance which does not guarantee future results.
How to Read the Rainbow Chart
-
01
Understand the Bands
The chart uses logarithmic regression to create 9 color-coded bands from blue ("Fire Sale") to dark red ("Maximum Bubble"), each representing a different valuation zone.
-
02
Find Your Position
Look for the pulsing dot on the chart showing where Bitcoin's current price sits within the rainbow bands right now.
-
03
Read the Zone
Each color band has a specific meaning: blue and green zones suggest undervaluation, yellow is fair value, and orange to red suggests overvaluation.
-
04
Take Action
Use the zone-specific recommendations linked to our DCA, Investment, and Savings calculators to make informed decisions.
Rainbow Chart V1 vs V2
Early Rainbow Chart versions were fitted before Bitcoin had lived through later cycle shocks. V2-style bands widened the long-term regression context after events such as the 2021 peak and FTX-era drawdown showed that a simple historical curve can drift as market structure changes.
Neither version is a guarantee. The useful part is the visual discipline: compare today's price with a long-term logarithmic range before making emotional decisions.
Rainbow Chart vs Power Law
The Rainbow Chart turns logarithmic regression into color zones. The Bitcoin Power Law Calculator focuses on the mathematical price corridor itself. Use both when you want a model-based view instead of a single target price. For the math behind the model, read our Bitcoin Power Law explained guide.
For risk context, pair this page with the Bitcoin Drawdown Calculator before assuming any band will hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
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How to Read the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
Understand the logarithmic regression bands and what they signal about valuation
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Disclaimer
The Rainbow Chart is a logarithmic regression model for educational purposes only. It does not predict future prices. Past band accuracy does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.