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    Power Law Price Model

    Bitcoin Power Law Calculator

    Project future Bitcoin prices using Giovanni Santostasi's Power Law regression model. Visualize support, fair value, and resistance bands from 2009 to 2036+.

    Power Law Parameters

    Ready to Project

    Pick a date and calculate the Power Law price

    Power Law Confidence Corridor

    Fair Value
    Support (÷3)
    Resistance (×3)

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    Year-by-Year Power Law Projections (2026–2036)

    Year Support (Floor) Fair Value Resistance (Ceiling)
    2026 $106,805 $320,416 $961,248
    2027 $148,773 $446,319 $1.34M
    2028 $203,552 $610,655 $1.83M
    2029 $274,275 $822,825 $2.47M
    2030 $363,944 $1.09M $3.28M
    2031 $476,617 $1.43M $4.29M
    2032 $616,735 $1.85M $5.55M
    2033 $789,864 $2.37M $7.11M
    2034 $1.00M $3.00M $9.01M
    2035 $1.26M $3.77M $11.31M
    2036 $1.56M $4.69M $14.07M

    Based on the formula Price = A × Days5.8 where Days = days since January 3, 2009 (Genesis Block). Model by Giovanni Santostasi.

    How to Use the Power Law Calculator

    1

    Select a Target Date

    Choose any future date using the date picker or quick preset buttons (2026, 2028, 2030, 2035) to project Bitcoin's price.

    2

    View the Projected Price Range

    See the Power Law model's fair value, support (lower bound), and resistance (upper bound) for your chosen date.

    3

    Check Current Deviation

    Instantly see whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued or overvalued compared to the Power Law model's fair value.

    4

    Export Your Report

    Download a PNG or PDF report of your analysis to share with others or save for future reference.

    What Is the Bitcoin Power Law?

    The Bitcoin Power Law is a mathematical relationship between Bitcoin's price and the number of days since the Genesis Block on January 3, 2009. Astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi discovered that when you plot Bitcoin's entire price history on a log-log chart, the data points form a remarkably straight line. That straight line follows the formula Price = A × Days5.8, where A is a constant derived from regression analysis and Days counts every day since block zero.

    Power laws aren't unique to Bitcoin. They describe earthquake magnitudes, city population distributions, and even the brightness of stars. What makes Bitcoin's fit unusual is its consistency: the R² value exceeds 0.95 across 17+ years of data spanning multiple market cycles, halvings, and regulatory shocks.

    Bitcoin Power Law Price Predictions by Year

    Using the formula above, the model projects a fair value of $1.09M for January 2030 with a support floor around $363,944 and a resistance ceiling near $3.28M. By January 2035, those numbers climb to a fair value of $3.77M, a floor of $1.26M, and a ceiling of $11.31M.

    These projections aren't pulled from thin air. They extend the same curve that has tracked Bitcoin's price since 2009. The support band (fair value divided by 3) represents the price level Bitcoin has historically refused to stay below for long. The resistance band (fair value multiplied by 3) marks where blow-off tops have peaked during bull markets. Check the full year-by-year projection table below for every year from 2026 through 2036.

    How Far Is Bitcoin From the Power Law Right Now?

    Today's Power Law fair value sits at $362,341. Connect to live price data above to see exactly how far Bitcoin sits from the model line today. Historically, the best long-term buying opportunities occurred when Bitcoin traded 30% or more below fair value, deep inside the support band. Conversely, readings above +100% from fair value have aligned with cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

    You can track this deviation in the results panel of our calculator. The percentage updates every 30 seconds using live market data, giving you a real-time gauge of where Bitcoin sits relative to its long-term trend. Pair it with the DCA calculator to plan accumulation during periods of deep undervaluation.

    Power Law vs Stock-to-Flow: Which Was More Accurate?

    PlanB's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predicted Bitcoin would reach $100K by the end of 2021. It didn't. The model broke down after the 2021 cycle top, and its price predictions have diverged significantly from reality since then. S2F ties price to Bitcoin's scarcity ratio (stock divided by annual production), which resets sharply at each halving, creating discrete jumps rather than a smooth curve.

    The Power Law, by contrast, uses time as its only input variable. It doesn't depend on halving events or supply dynamics directly. Its continuous curve has maintained accuracy through the 2022 bear market and into 2026. While S2F remains a useful framework for understanding supply scarcity, the Power Law has proven more reliable for price corridor estimation across full market cycles. Neither model should be used as a sole investment thesis. Consider reviewing our drawdown calculator to understand the risk side of any Bitcoin position.

    Limitations of the Power Law Model

    No model predicts the future with certainty, and the Power Law has real constraints. First, it assumes the power-law relationship that held from 2009 will continue indefinitely. As Bitcoin's market cap grows into the trillions, diminishing returns could flatten the curve below the model's expectations. Second, the model says nothing about short-term price action. Bitcoin can spend months or years above or below fair value before reverting.

    Third, external shocks like government bans, protocol-level bugs, or competing technologies fall outside the model's scope entirely. The Power Law works best as a long-term valuation compass, not a trading signal. Use it alongside tools like our retirement calculator and profit/loss calculator for a fuller picture of your Bitcoin strategy.

    FAQ

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Everything you need to know about the Bitcoin Power Law model

    Disclaimer

    The Power Law model is a mathematical regression based on historical data. It does not guarantee future prices. Bitcoin is volatile and past performance does not predict future results. This is not financial advice — always do your own research.